The last two years, I've hosted my blog with ghost.org. As the blog has grown, so have the costs. Later this year, I'll probably move to hosting it myself on AWS for a fraction of the cost ($0.25/mo vs. $25/mo), all with less than 100 lines of code. Self-hosting on cloud infrastructure has become so easy that I have to consider it.

I think SaaS (in general) will start to look more like cars. Cars need maintenance and aren't fixable or debuggable by the average person, yet we still own and lease them ourselves. You'll run your own SaaS, but maybe you'll need to take it in for routine maintenance every 15,000 hours.

Yet, this future of code managed services is already here but not evenly distributed. You'd need to be experienced at cloud infrastructure and DevOps to do it in a cost (time) effective manner. But the code that the batch of first adopters writes will be generic and reusable for anyone. That's when it gets interesting.

Here's how I think a reasonable timeline looks.

Today. Experienced DevOps engineers start to use personal AWS accounts for their personal projects. In college, I was running my own home server lab. Kids in college today will be using cloud infrastructure. The net cost of hosting a site like this might even be $0 under the free tier plans. The first applications to be self-hosted will be static sites and blogs.

Next year. The code that these engineers write are reusable for anyone that can run a script (in InfoSec, we'd call them "script kiddies"). You don't have to be a programmer, but you have to know how to click around an AWS account and run a command in the terminal.

Next five years. The reusable code gets wrapped up into end-to-end applications. For example, one application might open an AWS account, deploy the code, set up automatic upgrades and maintenance scripts, and set up connectivity to your site. This opens code managed services up to anyone.

Next ten years. Past static sites and blogs, more complex applications will begin to be hosted on a personal cloud infrastructure account. Maybe an intermediary that focuses on more consumer friendly UI/UX in cloud infrastructure will be the main service provider. It might be a relationship like consumers have with telcos like AT&T and Verizon (who is the Apple?).